2027 Draft: QBs Remain Moving Targets

First published October 15, 2026. Some details have changed since.

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Three weeks ago, Texas quarterback Arch Manning topped our rankings of prospects for the 2027 NFL Draft. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore ranked second.

Today, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker sits atop the quarterback list, followed by Miami’s Darian Mensah.

Manning slipped to sixth. Moore fell to eighth.

Eight of the current top ten quarterbacks changed positions since our September 25 report. Only Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 3) and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (No. 4) maintained their positions.

And we still face seven regular-season weekends, conference championships, potential playoff games and the inevitable decisions about who will actually enter the 2027 NFL Draft.

Welcome to the moving target that is the 2027 quarterback class.

Three Weeks, Dramatic Changes

Mestemaker made the biggest leap, climbing from seventh to first among quarterbacks. The Oklahoma State passer also ranks No. 2 overall among NFL Draft Scout’s 1,260 rated prospects, trailing only Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Mensah climbed from sixth to second among quarterbacks, fourth overall. Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss moved from ninth to fifth, placing ninth overall. Meanwhile, Manning dropped five quarterback positions and Moore fell six.

None of those movements necessarily signals a permanent judgment. Our rankings reflect current evaluations, not predictions carved into granite.

But the shifts demonstrate why NFL teams cannot afford to rely on September impressions.

Mestemaker, a former North Texas walk-on, continues to demonstrate the skills that made him the nation’s passing yardage leader in 2025. Mensah brings an impressive combination of efficiency, accuracy and command of Miami’s offense.

Manning still flashes the physical ability that originally made him a favorite to become the first quarterback selected. His inconsistency, however, raises legitimate questions about how soon that potential will translate into dependable NFL performance.

Moore presents another evaluation challenge. His considerable throwing ability remains evident, but as he recovers from a concussion, consistency and availability complicate his projection. And just as we were wondering whether to list his backup, vagabond redshirt sophomore Dylan Raiola, he was benched last weekend after starring the week before against USC.

The distance between potential and performance matters more with every passing Saturday.

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Eight Quarterbacks in the First Round?

Our current ratings place eight quarterbacks among the Top 32 overall prospects. All eight carry first-round projections. That is an unusually strong representation at football’s most important position. But remember the distinction between prospect ratings and an actual NFL mock draft.

We rate players. NFL franchises draft according to a combination of talent, need, medical considerations, organizational priorities and projected development.

Eight quarterbacks with first-round grades do not guarantee eight quarterbacks selected in the first round.

More important, those eight quarterbacks might not all be available.

NIL Money Changes the Equation

Seven of our current top ten quarterbacks carry redshirt sophomore or redshirt junior classifications, leaving open the possibility of additional college seasons. Once upon a time, a quarterback carrying a potential first-round NFL grade faced an obvious financial incentive to enter the draft.

Not necessarily anymore.

The expanded college compensation marketplace changes the calculation, especially for quarterbacks whose draft projections remain unsettled.

Consider the NIL valuations published by On3.

Mensah tops the list at an estimated $6.5 million. Moore and Chambliss each carry $5 million valuations. Mestemaker checks in at $3.5 million.

Those figures represent reported valuations, not independently confirmed payments. Still, they illustrate why a player might consider another year on campus instead of immediately entering the NFL.

A first-round projection in October provides no guarantee of the same projection in January. A quarterback who expects substantial college compensation might decide another season offers a better combination of financial security and professional development.

Of course, another season also carries risks.

Our accompanying NIL chart compares 17 prominent quarterbacks, including ten who appear in our current Top 20 draft rankings.

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The Pressure Only Increases

Saturday’s schedule begins another important evaluation stretch.

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin faces undefeated Indiana. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr visits unbeaten BYU. Oklahoma State’s Mestemaker gets a ranked Houston opponent, while Miami’s Mensah meets Florida State.

Manning attempts to restore some confidence when Texas hosts Florida.

The approaching conference championship races and 12-team College Football Playoff create increasingly consequential stages for these quarterbacks.

Scouts will examine more than statistics.

How quickly does a quarterback recognize coverage? How accurately does he deliver under pressure? Can he progress beyond his first read? Does he protect the football when the game turns against him?

The answers could substantially alter today’s rankings.

And then comes another question: Which quarterbacks choose to enter the draft?

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Beyond Quarterbacks: The Top 32

While quarterbacks command much of the attention, the complete 2027 prospect class offers considerably more.

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith occupies the No. 1 overall position on NFL Draft Scout’s current board.

Mestemaker follows at No. 2, Texas linebacker Colin Simmons ranks third, Mensah fourth and Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore fifth.

Seven quarterbacks appear among the top 15 prospects, with Oregon’s Dante Moore completing the eight-quarterback contingent at No. 28.

The remaining positions include offensive tackles, receivers, defensive linemen, cornerbacks and other prospects whose evaluations will change as the season progresses.

Our Top 32 provides a first-round-sized snapshot of the current rankings, not a prediction of the first 32 selections next April.

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NFL Draft Scout: Total Access

You have seen our Top 20 quarterbacks and Top 32 overall prospects.

Now see all 1,260.

Hall of Football paid subscribers can access NFL Draft Scout’s complete October 2026 prospect ratings in one downloadable Excel workbook.

The file includes overall rankings plus separate worksheets for each position, with player measurements, schools, class designations, recruiting backgrounds and draft projections.

As the season progresses, updated editions will reflect changes in player performance, evaluations and draft outlooks.

The ratings also provide the foundation for our expanding Football Frankly Series: NFL Draft Book.

TOTAL ACCESS — COMPLETE 1,260-PLAYER RATINGS

Downloadable for paid subscribers