CFB’s Daunting Whether Report

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Our resident draft savant, Brian “Hitman” Hitterman, an NFL Draft Scout analyst for three decades, is always a little manic when discussing football.

But this was over the top. Even for him.

He called this week with his hair on fire, talking faster than I could comprehend. Apparently, he ventured into the future college football schedule, discovered something extraordinary and suffered a minor meltdown.

Something about the mother of all football weekends. A massive storm approaching. November 14. Catastrophic implications.

I wondered whether he was warning me about El Niño or something the NCAA cooked up. Eventually, I managed to decipher the emergency.

On Saturday, November 14, seven games could match teams currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, with several other confrontations threatening to rearrange conference championships and the College Football Playoff.

Seven. On one Saturday.

The CFP Selection Committee releases its initial rankings November 3. Eleven days later, those judgments might resemble debris scattered across the countryside.

Welcome to our first extended college football WHETHER REPORT.

Not whether the games will be played. Whether the contenders survive them.

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The Extended Forecast

October 24 — Scattered Storms

Texas attempts to reverse its collapse against Ole Miss. Unbeaten Utah faces Houston. Indiana seeks to recover at Michigan. Alabama tries to avoid a third defeat.

October 31 — Increasing Cloud Cover

Ohio State visits USC. Georgia faces Florida. Conference races tighten while contenders position themselves for the CFP committee’s initial rankings.

November 7 — Dangerous Conditions

Georgia at Ole Miss. Alabama at LSU. Miami at Notre Dame.

Three games capable of unsettling the national landscape before the committee finishes reviewing its first set of rankings.

November 14 — SEVERE STORM WARNING

Seven potential Top 25 showdowns, four additional games involving major programs and enough individual talent to make this one of the most consequential Saturdays of the season.

Of course, the participants must survive the intervening weekends.

That is precisely what makes Brian’s discovery so intriguing.

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Seven Potential Top 25 Collisions

Rankings and records reflect the October 18 Associated Press poll.

No. 22 Missouri (5-2) at No. 5 Georgia (6-1)

Georgia occupied the nation’s No. 1 ranking until Auburn marched into Athens and delivered a stunning 27-24 upset.

Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton committed three turnovers, raising questions about an offense that appeared considerably more secure earlier in October when Georgia defeated Alabama.

Now the Bulldogs face Florida and Ole Miss before Missouri arrives.

Missouri presents another interesting offensive dilemma. Running back Jamal Roberts produced consecutive 200-yard rushing performances earlier this month, but the Tigers subsequently suffered a 31-3 beating at Ole Miss.

Can Missouri recover its running game against Georgia? Can Stockton protect the football against another ranked opponent?

Neither question seemed particularly urgent a few weeks ago.

Another defeat could push Georgia out of the SEC championship race. Missouri, already carrying two losses, cannot afford much additional damage.

And Georgia’s November 7 trip to Ole Miss might determine whether this becomes a showdown between contenders or an exercise in survival.

No. 24 Northwestern (5-1) at No. 3 Ohio State (6-1)

Northwestern?

Seriously?

Nobody expected the Wildcats to occupy this position when the season began. Yet quarterback Aidan Chiles, formerly of Michigan State, is enjoying a remarkable revival under offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.

Northwestern’s only defeat came at Indiana, 29-23. Victories over Penn State and Michigan State followed.

Now comes the difficult part: Rutgers, Oregon and Iowa before Columbus.

Ohio State faces a potentially more serious problem.

Quarterback Julian Sayin suffered an injury to his throwing arm during the Buckeyes’ 19-15 victory at Indiana. Coach Ryan Day announced Tuesday that Sayin is out indefinitely and doubtful to return during the regular season.

Freshman Luke Fahey leads the competition to replace him, with Tavien St. Clair also in contention.

Receiver Jeremiah Smith remains one of the nation’s most dangerous offensive players, but Ohio State must now determine whether its championship ambitions can survive the loss of its starting quarterback.

If Northwestern survives its next three assignments, the Wildcats could enter Columbus with a legitimate opportunity to disrupt the Big Ten race.

The bigger surprise might be that such an upset no longer seems unimaginable.

No. 16 USC (6-1) at No. 6 Indiana (6-1)

I was at the USC vs. Indiana meeting in the 1968 Rose Bowl, when the Trojans represented the Pac-8 and the Hoosiers were the Big Ten’s surprising “Cardiac Kids.” O.J. Simpson scored twice as USC won, 14-3, securing the national championship.

Now, 58 years later, these former intersectional opponents meet as Big Ten rivals, with a national championship potentially in play again.

Indiana’s extraordinary 22-game winning streak ended against Ohio State.

Now quarterback Josh Hoover faces the uncomfortable task of keeping the defending national champions among the playoff favorites without the protection of an unbeaten record.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava confronts a similar challenge from another direction.

The Trojans possess offensive talent capable of challenging elite opposition, but consistency against the strongest opponents remains a concern.

And USC must face Ohio State on October 31 before traveling to Bloomington.

There is an additional curiosity here. Conference realignment produced a Big Ten matchup between two schools whose football histories could hardly be more different.

For Indiana, November 14 might represent an opportunity to demonstrate that the Ohio State defeat merely interrupted another championship pursuit.

For USC, a victory in Bloomington could provide the signature result necessary to transform a promising season into a genuine playoff campaign.

Two quarterbacks. Two contenders. One increasingly narrow road toward December.

No. 19 Texas (4-2) at No. 18 LSU (5-2)

Imagine describing this matchup in August as a possible battle between desperate teams.

Texas began October ranked No. 1.

Consecutive defeats dropped the Longhorns to No. 19, placing quarterback Arch Manning under extraordinary scrutiny.

Manning still possesses the talent to restore Texas to national relevance. But his road to Baton Rouge runs through Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri.

LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt faces his own demanding assignment.

The Tigers must confront Alabama on November 7, with little margin remaining for another disappointing performance.

By the time Texas reaches Baton Rouge, one or both teams might be fighting to avoid a third or fourth defeat.

The expanded playoff format does not automatically eliminate teams with multiple losses. But conference championship opportunities can disappear quickly, leaving highly regarded programs dependent on committee judgments and results elsewhere.

Manning versus Leavitt offers enough individual intrigue without the standings.

Add the possibility that two preseason powers might be fighting for their postseason lives, and this could become the weekend’s most compelling quarterback confrontation.

No. 20 Florida (5-2) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1)

Perhaps Brian’s most improbable discovery.

Kentucky, under first-year coach Will Stein, emerged as an unexpected SEC contender. Quarterback Kenny Minchey demonstrated considerable poise while directing the Wildcats’ comeback victory against Oklahoma.

Florida produced an equally intriguing development.

Freshman quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. helped engineer a 27-24 upset of Texas, restoring momentum to a Gators program that struggled earlier in October.

Neither program enjoys a clear path to November 14. Florida must face Georgia and Oklahoma. Kentucky encounters Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

But consider what happens if both continue winning.

Kentucky could approach its final conference assignments with a realistic opportunity to reach the SEC championship game. Florida, behind a freshman quarterback, could turn a troubled season into one of the league’s more surprising recoveries.

A matchup that barely registered on the preseason national radar suddenly offers two developing quarterbacks an opportunity to influence the SEC championship race.

Not every November storm begins with an August thunderclap.

No. 10 Utah (6-0) at No. 25 Arizona (5-1)

The Big 12 already resembles a crowded intersection without traffic signals.

BYU, Texas Tech and Utah remain unbeaten. Arizona, with one defeat, continues to challenge the conference leaders.

Utah presents an unusual offensive problem through its complementary use of quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin.

Arizona counters with veteran Noah Fifita, a productive, experienced passer determined to finish his college career with the Wildcats.

The contrast in quarterback styles alone makes this worth watching.

But the larger issue involves access to the Big 12 championship game, potentially the conference’s clearest route into the national playoff.

Utah must first handle Houston and other conference opposition. Arizona confronts Iowa State and Texas Tech before the Utes arrive.

With several contenders competing for only two championship-game positions, one November defeat might prove more expensive than the final score suggests.

And Arizona’s home-field advantage could become particularly significant if Fifita finds opportunities against Utah’s defense.

No. 17 Wake Forest (6-1) at No. 23 SMU (5-1)

Miami occupies the ACC’s most prominent position, ranked No. 1 nationally.

But Wake Forest and SMU could make the league’s championship picture considerably more complicated.

Wake Forest quarterback Gio Lopez continues to develop into one of the conference’s most productive dual-threat players.

Earlier this month, Lopez accounted for five touchdowns during a 57-3 victory over Stanford. The Demon Deacons followed with a 41-7 beating of California.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings directs another dangerous offense. The Mustangs strengthened their conference position with a 23-13 victory over Virginia.

Unlike some of the more familiar national powers, these programs cannot rely on reputation to influence the playoff conversation.

Their arguments must come from victories.

If both enter November 14 with one defeat apiece, their meeting in Dallas could help determine who challenges Miami for the ACC championship and whether the league can make a credible case for multiple playoff invitations.

Two productive quarterbacks. Two unexpected contenders.

Sometimes the most interesting weather develops where nobody bothered to look.

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And That Is Not the Entire Storm

Four additional November 14 matchups could carry substantial consequences, even without two currently ranked participants.

No. 11 Tennessee at Texas A&M

Tennessee just defeated Alabama, 26-10, strengthening its position among the SEC contenders. Texas A&M seeks a breakthrough against the league’s upper tier. Depending on intervening results, this becomes either a championship-positioning game or a final opportunity to rescue a season.

No. 7 Ole Miss at Oklahoma

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss continues to enhance his national reputation, but the Rebels must navigate Texas, Auburn and Georgia before traveling to Norman. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer continues to struggle with turnovers. If the Sooners correct that problem, Norman could become an extremely uncomfortable destination for a playoff contender.

Michigan at Oregon

Neither program appears in the current Top 25.

Read that again.

Two national powers, now Big Ten rivals, meet in a game that appeared far more glamorous before the season. Whether November 14 offers postseason opportunity or a fight for respectability depends on what happens next.

No. 13 Alabama at Vanderbilt

Alabama already owns two defeats. Quarterback Keelon Russell must restore offensive consistency following the Crimson Tide’s 26-10 loss to Tennessee. Texas A&M and LSU present major obstacles before Nashville. Another defeat could make Alabama’s familiar championship ambitions increasingly difficult to sustain.

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Forecast Confidence: High. Damage: Unknown.

The extraordinary feature of November 14 is not simply the concentration of potential ranked matchups.

It is the collision of individual ambitions.

Quarterbacks attempting to rescue seasons. Freshmen trying to establish themselves. Unexpected contenders seeking legitimacy. National powers discovering that reputations do not protect playoff positions. Between now and then, injuries, upsets and the weekly reshuffling of conference standings will change the forecast.

Some of Brian’s seven showdowns might lose their national significance. Others could become considerably more important. And somewhere inside that unsettled landscape, a player nobody expected to influence the national championship race might change everything.

Brian spotted the approaching storm three weeks before landfall.

I cannot guarantee seven ranked showdowns. I cannot guarantee the CFP committee will need to reconstruct its rankings. And I certainly cannot blame El Niño.

But I know this much: The barometer is dropping.

And you read/heard it here first.

Thanks, Brian.

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